Global M&A's Great Rebound: What the 2026 Outlook Means for European Dealmakers
Tim Guntermann
Founder & Managing Partner
After three subdued years, global mergers and acquisitions staged a decisive rebound in 2025, and the major investment-bank and strategy-house outlooks now point to that momentum carrying through 2026. For European boards and the sponsors who circle them, the question is no longer whether the window has reopened, but how to act within it before financing conditions or geopolitics shift again.
A market back to scale
The headline numbers are striking, even allowing for the methodological differences between data providers. McKinsey's 2026 M&A Trends report records global deal value of roughly USD 4.7 trillion in 2025, a 43% increase on 2024 and around 20% above the ten-year average. Bain & Company puts the figure at USD 4.8 trillion, the second-highest total on record, while JPMorgan, citing LSEG data in its 2026 Global M&A Outlook, points to approximately USD 5.1 trillion. The precise total varies; the direction does not.
Scale has been the defining feature of the recovery. LSEG data cited by JPMorgan counted 68 transactions of USD 10 billion or more in 2025 — roughly twice the 2024 tally and an all-time high; McKinsey, using its own dataset, records 60 such deals, the most since 2021. Bain estimates that megadeals above USD 5 billion drove around three-quarters of the growth in strategic deal value. The return of conviction at the top end is the clearest signal that corporate confidence has recovered.
Private equity leads, valuations firm
Private equity has been central to the rebound rather than a bystander to it. McKinsey reports that sponsor-led deal value rose 54% to USD 1.2 trillion in 2025, outpacing the broader market as funds worked through aging dry powder and reopened exit channels. Valuations have firmed accordingly: Bain places the median strategic EV/EBITDA multiple at 11.6x, up roughly a full turn year on year, though still below the 2021 peak across most industries.
Technology has led the charge, with Bain noting technology deal value up 76% and AI-related transactions accounting for around half of strategic technology deals above USD 500 million.
Europe: a real recovery on a narrower base
Europe's recovery has been real but more muted than the global picture. Oliver Wyman's European M&A Outlook 2026 estimates regional deal value of close to USD 800 billion in 2025, up around 9% against global growth well into the double digits, and Bain notes EMEA strategic deal count actually fell 7% as value rose — confirming that activity concentrated in fewer, larger transactions.
The fuel for a broader 2026 is nonetheless in place. Oliver Wyman points to:
- Roughly EUR 2.6 trillion of corporate cash on European balance sheets
- More than 1,500 private-equity-backed assets, worth around USD 760 billion in enterprise value, approaching the market
What's driving 2026
Several structural drivers reinforce the case for sustained activity. Bain calculates that M&A absorbed just 7% of corporate cash deployment in 2025 — a ten-year low against a historical range of 9–17%, implying considerable unspent firepower. McKinsey records shareholder-activist campaigns at a five-year high, up 15% on 2024, with roughly a third carrying an M&A thesis. And JPMorgan frames its entire outlook around the idea that risk itself — from AI disruption to supply-chain and energy realignment — is pushing chief executives toward scale.
Think big. The financing markets can support it and the investors will reward you for it.
— Anu Aiyengar, Global Head of M&A, JPMorgan
The advisory takeaway
For our clients, the implication is one of disciplined urgency. The conditions that produced the 2025 rebound — narrowing bid-ask spreads, available financing and a deep backlog of sponsor-owned assets — are precisely those that favour well-prepared sellers and decisive buyers. In a market where value is concentrating in fewer, larger and more competitive processes, the margin between an average outcome and an optimal one is widened by preparation: a clear equity story, rigorous vendor diligence and a targeted, conviction-led buyer strategy. The window is open, but markets of this kind rarely stay open indefinitely.
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Tim Guntermann
Founder & Managing Partner